Ukraine sees no need to limit wheat exports for the upcoming 2023/24 season from July to June, as the winter harvest appears to be larger than expected, though lower than in peacetime, a senior Agriculture Ministry official said on Thursday.

Ukraine was the fifth largest exporter of wheat in the world before the war with Russia, and its shipments were especially important to the poor countries of Africa and the Middle East.

Based on the results collected by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, as well as satellite images, farmers planted more wheat in southern areas than the ministry had predicted in the fall, Deputy Finance Minister Taras Vysotskiy told Reuters. "The balance (of supply) is positive and so far there is no reason to," he said of the limits imposed by the government on wheat exports that would preserve more wheat for domestic consumption.

Some Ukrainian farming groups have suggested that the government may impose limits on wheat exports, fearing a shortage of wheat for milling at home after a smaller, low-quality harvest.

The ministry now estimates that farmers planted 4.1 million hectares of winter wheat nationally, up from the October estimate of 3.7 to 3.8 million hectares, Vysotskiy said, adding that the ministry plans to formally release the new forecast on Monday.

The planted area is still much smaller than before the war, when farmers soed 6.2 million hectares.

The size of Ukraine's wheat crop depends largely on the rain it will receive in the spring before farmers harvest, Vysotskiy said.

The harvest can range from 16 million to 18 million tons, he estimated. Last year, Ukraine produced 20.2 million tons of wheat.

Ukrainian wheat exports have fallen to 11.3 million tons so far this season, down from 18.1 million sold abroad in the same period in 2021/22, ministry data show.

External factors can still limit the amount of wheat ukraine can sell outside its borders. The Black Sea grain agreement with Russia, the United Nations and Turkey, which allows some ships to carry Ukrainian grain during the war, is expected to expire later this month. Some areas in the east and south are also heavily mined and difficult to cultivate during the war.

Source: Agrolink