The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its March 8 report on Global Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates made no changes to its wheat domestic outlook for 2022-23, but said the overall wheat outlook was for slightly lower supplies, increased trade and consumption, and lower final inventories compared to February.

The USDA predicted global wheat supply in 2022-23 at 1.060 billion tons, a 110,000-ton fall from february's projection. Supplies were reduced due to a reduction in initial inventories (mainly in an increase to China's ration in 2020-21 and residual use), which more than offset an increase in world wheat production.

The USDA predicted that global wheat inventories for 2022-23 would be 271.45 million tons, 5.25 million tons below February forecasts. The largest fall was attributed to China, with a fall of 5 million tons to 136.76 million tons.

World wheat production was forecast at 788.94 million tons, an increase of 5.14 million tons compared to February and an increase of 9.73 million tons from 779.21 million tons in 2021-22. Production forecasts were high for Argentina (up from 400,000 tons to 12.9 million), Australia (up from 1 million tons to 39 million), Brazil (up from 500,000 tons to 10.4 million), India (up from 1 million tons to 104 million tons) and Kazakhstan (increase of 2.4 million tons to 16.4 million).

The USDA projected global wheat consumption in 2022-23 at 793.63 million tons, 2.03 million tons above the February forecast and 920,000 tons above 792.71 million tons in 2021-22. The USDA forecast global wheat exports at 213.93 million tons, 980,000 tons above February forecasts and 11.06 million tons compared to 2021-22.

Source: Agrolink