Global water crisis is more severe than previously thought, study finds
segunda-feira, fevereiro 06, 2023
Projections on the impact of climate on river flow have been calculated for decades, mostly based on physical models, as is the case with projections made by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). However, new analyses indicate that these models underestimate the availability of water in the scenario of the current climate emergency.
This is the case of a survey conducted by Professor Günter Blöschl of the Technical University of Vienna in Austria, who has teamed up with colleagues from China, Australia, the USA and Saudi Arabia to build and analyze a large database of water flow observations around the world. The research included more than 9,500 watersheds on the planet, with data from different decades.
The results were published in the journal Nature Water on Thursday (2) and show that the consequences of climate change when creating local water crises have an even greater extent than expected. That's because, according to the new study, the connection between precipitation and the amount of water in rivers is more sensitive than previously thought.
"In the climatology community, the effects of climate change on the atmosphere are very well understood. However, its local consequences on rivers and water availability fall in the field of hydrology," Blöschl said in a statement.
The climate crisis alters global atmospheric circulation, which in turn changes the rainfall regime and evaporation in much of the world. Consequently, the amount of water from rivers to be used locally also changes.
Hence why, according to the authors, the models for predicting the effects of climate change on water supply should be reviewed, because they do not have the flow measurements that the new model provides.
According to the analysis, the expected global water flow between 2021 and 2050 may be lower than predicted by the Earth System Models. Especially in Africa, Australia and North America, they have a significantly higher risk of water supply crises over the next three decades.
Source: Um só Planeta
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