Oil and gas company BP lowered its outlook for fossil fuel demand in its latest annual forecast, arguing that the turbulence triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine will lead countries to seek greater energy security in the next decade by investing in renewable energy.

As a result, global carbon emissions may peak earlier in the 2020s than the group had previously estimated, BP said in the energy report released on Monday (30). But even with increased political support for reducing the use of fossil fuels, governments and industry are still far behind in the race to achieve zero net emissions by 2050, the analysis showed.

One of the most widely read studies in the industry, the report outlines three scenarios for the evolution of the energy sector by 2050. Under the "New Momentum" scenario, which is designed to "reflect the current broad trajectory" of the global energy system, oil demand would be about 93 million barrels per day by 2035, 5% lower than predicted last year, and natural gas demand would be 6% weaker.

The lower forecasts reflect a greater role for domestic renewable energy as countries reduce dependence on imported hydrocarbons, but also expectations of weaker economic growth over the next decade due to the lasting impact of the energy crisis, the Guardian reports.

"The experience of the great energy supply shocks of the 1970s suggests that events that have increased energy security concerns may have significant and persistent impacts on energy markets," spencer dale, BP's chief economist, said in the report.

As a result, global carbon emissions in the current scenario would peak in this decade, reaching 37.8 gigatons by 2030. That's about 4% lower than predicted last year, when the company estimated that emissions would peak in the "late 2020s." The International Energy Agency has predicted that greenhouse gas emissions will peak in 2025, the Financial Times reports.

U.S. President Joe Biden's multibillion-dollar package of support for clean energy projects has also helped improve prospects for carbon emissions. But "the scale of decarbonization" means greater support is needed, including policies to facilitate faster licensing and approval of energy and low-carbon infrastructure, the report said.

Source: Um só Planeta