The International Grain Council (IGC) lowered its forecast for global grain production in the 2022/23 crop. Released on Thursday (16), the new estimate is volume in the house of 2.248 billion tons. In January, the estimate was 2.256 billion tons. According to the agency, the review considers the prospects for lower corn production for the United States and Argentina.

If confirmed, the total volume of production will be 1.88% lower than estimated for the 2021/22 season of 2.291 billion tons. The estimate for global grain consumption was also reduced from 2.266 billion tons to 2.275 billion tons. The inventory forecast went from 577 million tons to 579 million tons.

For soybeans in 2022/23, the IGC decreased the production estimate by 7 million tons. To this end, the council was also based on reducing the crop outlook of Argentina and the United States. Thus, the forecast went from 385 million tons estimated in January to 378 million tons in the current report, compared to 356 million tons in 2021/22.

The projection of oilseed consumption was decreased by 2 million tons compared to January, to 374 million tons, compared to 366 million tons in the previous cycle. The projection of inventories fell to 49 million tons, compared to 54 million tons expected in January. The volume of the final soybean stock of 2021/22 was maintained at 45 million tons.

Grains: corn and wheat

As for corn, the council reduced the production estimate from 1.161 billion tons to 1.153 billion tons in 2022/23. The volume represents a fall of 67 million tons compared to the result of 1.220 billion tons projected for 2021/22.

Cereal consumption, in turn, fell from 1.188 billion tons, expected in January, to 1.180 billion tons, compared to 1.217 billion tons projected for 2021/22. Inventories went from 254 million tons to 255 million tons.

In relation to wheat, in the 2022/23 season, the IGC maintained production of 796 million tons. Volume remains higher than the 781 million tonnes forecast for 2021/22. The estimated consumption was also conserved at 789 million tons, while for 2021/22 it is 783 million tons.

The outlook for cereal stocks was raised by 1 million tons to 282 million tonnes, while for 2021/22 the estimate is 275 million tons. According to the IGC, the world's wheat outlook is more restricted and general consumption in an uptrend, so inventories should decrease.

Crop 2021/22

For the 2021/22 crop, the IGC raised its forecast for global grain production from 2.290 billion tons in January to 2.291 billion tons. In relation to world grain consumption, the forecast went from 2.296 billion tons to 2.295 billion tons. The forecast for final inventories was increased from 596 million tons to 598 million tons.

Source: Canal Rural