Both the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the National Supply Company (Conab) disclosed their expectations about Brazilian corn numbers and ended up diverging on some things. According to TF Agroeconômica, Conab raised final inventories, which can keep prices under pressure. The USDA says that the domestic market will have less demand and the surplus will be exported.

While Conab estimates a reduction of 1,318.6 million tons between the January and February reports, closing at 123,743.8 million tons, the USDA is betting that production should remain at 125 million tons without change. One case where none of the agencies altered the data was on imports, however, Conab believes the country should buy 2,800 million tons of corn and the USDA bets on 1,300 million tons.

Regarding consumption, Conab data estimated a total of 80,805.3 million tons in January and now estimates 79,376.8 million, representing a fall of 1,428.5 million tons. The USDA expects a further decline, from 76 million tons to 73 million, a reduction of 3 million tons from one report to the next, when comparing January with February.

Talking about final inventories, while Conab believes the figures are expected to rise from 7,342.4 million tons to 8,056.1 million tons, an increase of 713,600 tons. In the case of the USDA, the Department believes that inventories should be 7,250.00 million tons, as in the previous report.

Source: Agrolink