The International Grain Council (IGC) has marginally raised its forecast for global grain production in the 2022/23 season. Now, according to a report released on Thursday (12), the agency estimates the volume of 2.256 billion tons. Previously, in November, the projection was 2.255 billion tons. If confirmed, the total volume of production will be 1.48% lower than estimated for the 2021/22 season of 2.290 billion tons.

The estimate for global grain consumption was raised from 2.272 billion tons to 2.275 billion tons. The inventory forecast went from 580 million tons to 577 million tons. The IGC stated that this is the lowest level of inventories in the last eight years and takes into account lower initial inventories and expectations of higher demand for food.

For soybeans in 2022/23, the council reduced the production estimate by 3 million tons, based on a reduction in Argentina's crop outlook, which exceeds marginal production increases in other producing countries. The forecast rose from 388 million tons estimated in November to 385 million tons in the current report, compared to 356 million tonnes in 2021/22. According to the IGC, the reduction in supply was combined with a smaller number of consumption, which caused the aggregate end-of-season inventories to remain unchanged compared to November.

The projection of oilseed consumption was decreased by 3 million tons compared to November, to 376 million tons, compared to 366 million tons in the previous cycle. The projection of inventories was maintained at 54 million tons. The volume of the final soybean stock of 2021/22 was also maintained at 45 million tons.

Grains: IGC estimates for corn and wheat

As for corn, the council reduced the production estimate from 1.166 billion tons to 1.161 billion tons in 2022/23. The volume represents a fall of 58 million tons compared to the result of 1.219 billion tons projected for 2021/22. Consumption fell from 1.190 billion tons in November to 1.188 billion tons, compared to 1.217 billion tons projected for 2021/22. Inventories went from 257 million tons to 254 million tons.

In relation to wheat, in the 2022/23 season, the IGC increased production from 791 million tons to 796 million tons. The volume also remains higher than the 781 million tonnes forecast for 2021/22. The estimated consumption was raised from 784 million tonnes to 789 million tonnes, while for 2021/22 it is 784 million tonnes. The outlook for inventories was reduced by 1 million tons to 281 million tons, while for 2021/22 the estimate is 274 million tons.

For the 2021/22 crop, the IGC raised its forecast for global grain production from 2.289 billion tons in November to 2.290 billion tons in January. In relation to the world consumption of grains, the entity also recorded progress. The forecast went from 2.295 billion tons to 2.296 billion tons. The forecast for final inventories was reduced from 597 million tons to 596 million tons.

Source: Canal Rural