Soybean imports by China, the world's largest oilseed buyer, are likely to decline by 2030. The finding comes from Rabobank's report. The bank attributes the possible decrease, mainly, to the tendency to reduce the grain bran content in animal feed formulas.

The practice is the result of a campaign by the government of the Asian country that aims to reduce dependence on imported soybeans and invest in its own production in an attempt to ensure the food security of its inhabitants.

In addition, the Chinese trend is for slower growth in livestock production and continuous improvement in agricultural practices. Thus, in a scenario of low soybean meal inclusion, China will need to import "only" 87 million tons of the commodity by 2025 and 84 million tons by 2030.

In 2022, the Chinese acquired about 95 million tons of grain. As a part, Rabobank says that if the purchase growth rate remains unchanged, Asians are estimated to acquire 98 million tonnes in 2025 and 105 million tons in 2030.

Low soybean content in feed

In a reality with less soybeans bought by the Eastern giant, a lower utilization of grinding capacity should force the closing of crushing. If there is inclusion of low oilseed meal in animal feed, the ratio will fall from the current 15.3% to 13.5% in 2025 and 12% in 2030.

Rabobank's report also points out that China has the largest soybean milling capacity in the world, estimated at more than 170 million tons to date. Still, the average rates of utilization of installed capacity are around 55%, which reflects the continuous pressure on margins.

Source: Canal Rural