A severe agricultural drought hit Central Asia in 2021 at the start of the growing season, causing mass deaths of crops and livestock and causing food prices to rise. This severe drought is not an independent event, but an intensification of a drought trend since the 1990s. Whether the worsening of agricultural droughts continues in the future is a major concern for both the public and the scientific community.

Dr. Jiang Jie and Prof. Zhou Tianjun of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences investigated past changes in agricultural droughts in Central Asia and made projections on future changes. They found that the worsening of agricultural droughts in South Central Asia at the beginning of the growing season since 1992 was caused by the combination of anthropogenic forces and internal variability associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). They also found that man-induced reduction in soil moisture will be exacerbated in the future by rapid warming of climates.

The study was published in Nature Geoscience on January 12. It was based on several tests, including observations and simulations of large sets provided by the Us National Atmospheric Research Centre, Max Planck Institute of Germany and The Commonwealth Industrial and Scientific Research Organisation of Australia. "Agricultural drought refers to soil moisture deficits, which are closely related to changes in weather factors and usually occur after the weather drought," said Dr. Jiang, first author of the study.

The researchers found that anthropogenic external budgeting and the natural internal variability of the climate system together have caused aggravated droughts since the 1990s, modulating long-term changes in climatic factors, including temperature and precipitation.

Source: Agrolink