The Ukraine War will continue to generate global economic impacts in 2023, including on Brazil's foreign trade, and could lead to an increase in the price of basic products. The analysis is by Fábio Pizzamiglio, director of the international trade advisory Efficienza.

According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the conflict is expected to cost the global economy $2.8 trillion in lost production by the end of next year. Economic growth projections were also revised down from 4.5% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023 to 3% this year and 2.2% next year.

"In addition to the immediate impacts, the conflict in Ukraine may also affect international trade in the future. Rising tensions between Russia and Western countries could lead to protectionist measures and a swell of international trade. However, we need to wait for the next chapters and follow the changes we can have in the coming year," pizzamiglio said.

PETROLEUM PRICE

The executive also points to a highlight in relation to the price of oil, which can continue to register highs: "Historically, international conflicts have affected the prices of basic products, such as oil. The rise in prices of these products may continue to have an impact on global inflation, as has been seen in previous conflicts. I wouldn't rule out looking higher in the future."

"As long as the conflict continues, we will have variations in the value of products marketed by the countries involved, from fuels to agribusiness products, mainly motivated by fertilizer production," Pizzamiglio said. He recalls that Russia has announced that it will not negotiate with partners on the basis of the price stipulated by the European Union.

"It may seem like a distant reality, but all this conflict may continue to pose risks to the economy and foreign trade in Brazil, not only affecting our export, but the values of products in the domestic market, which is dependent on oil and diesel for transportation. This has an impact on our inflation," he concludes.

Source: Agrolink