Efforts to stop the advance of global warming are now focused on meeting the targets set by the Paris Agreement and limiting the rise in global temperature to 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius. However, a new study by the University of Massachusetts Amherst in the United States has found that even the most optimistic targets can lead to a catastrophic rise in sea level and threaten island and coastal nations around the world.

Published in the journal Earth's Future in November, the research focuses on the accelerated melting of antarctic ice sheet, which contains the world's largest freshwater stock – enough to lift the oceans by 58 meters.

The U.S. university's team of researchers said helping to maintain what is considered a "safe" level of warming, 1.5°C, would still allow for this melting and a consequent devastating rise in sea level.

It turns out that all the melted water in Antarctica will not cause the same amount of sea level rise worldwide. Some areas in the Caribbean Sea, as well as the Indian and Pacific Oceans, will experience a disproportionate share of ocean elevation due to Antarctic ice – up to 33% more than the global average.

In fact, the countries that will suffer the most from these changes are those that belong to the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), an organization of 39 island and coastal nations around the world.

The authors of the paper show that while AOSIS countries have emitted an insignificant amount of the planet's anthropogenic greenhouse gases, they are bearing the weight of the world's rising waters.

"Temperature is not the only way to track global climate change, but it has become the iconic metric in the Paris Agreement," shaina Sadai of the University of Massachusetts Amherst said in a statement.

The researchers also draw attention to how the dynamics of political power and history of global inequality influence climate negotiations. For the authors, the experiences of AOSIS countries can be used to better understand the impacts of climate justice on international negotiations and the relations between science and political power.

Source: Um só Planeta