Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to use the possible extension of the UN-mediated Black Sea grain agreement as a way to gain influence and dominate next month's G20 summit in Indonesia. That's what a European diplomat briefed on the grain negotiations said.

Before the expiration of the grain agreement on November 19, which allows the export of Ukrainian grains from the Black Sea, Russian officials have repeatedly said that there are serious problems with it. But a European diplomat, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the discussions, said Putin will attend the G20 summit on the seaside island of Bali, which begins on November 15.

The Kremlin, which has not yet confirmed the presence of russia's president, declined immediate comment. Putin said on October 14 that he had not yet made a final decision on whether to go or not. If he participates, it will be the first major global summit that the Kremlin chief will attend alongside top Western leaders -- including U.S. President Joe Biden -- since the war against Ukraine began on February 24.

"The grain agreement will be the centerpiece of this G20 summit and everyone will try to convince Putin to extend it, essentially to allow it to be extended or longer," the European diplomat said. "It's a way for the Russians to keep the cards at the G20 summit, but a rollover or a long-term extension of the grain agreement costs them nothing."

Putin, G20 and grain agreement

The United Nations-mediated grain agreement is crucial to food markets: it allows grain exports from Ukraine, one of the world's largest grain exporters, which the Russian invasion had halted. Since the agreement was closed on July 22, several million tons of corn, wheat, sunflower, barley, rapeseed and soybean products have been exported from Ukrainian Black Sea ports.

G20 leaders will press Putin to extend the agreement, the diplomat said. Ultimately, Russia will allow the agreement to be extended by four months – or even a larger extension, he said. "Russia will go to the limit, but it will extend because it does not want to face the international pro-reproach of ending the grain agreement," the diplomat said.

"This is the first major event since the beginning of the war and every head of state who wants to be a mediator -- starting with President Macron (of France) -- will go straight to Putin's hotel room to be the mediator who convinced Putin to extend the grain agreement - so Putin will be the kingsman at this summit,"  complemented, according to information released by Reuters news agency.

Source: Canal Rural