Brazilian agribusiness exports totaled US$ 79 billion in the first half of this year, 26% higher than in the same period of 2021 and a record.

The figures were compiled by the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea) of Esalq/USP, based on data from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Economy (Secex).

With this result, the trade balance of the sector (exports minus imports of agricultural products) was positive, at more than US$ 70 billion, offsetting the trade deficit of other sectors of the Brazilian economy and contributing to a trade surplus of more than US$ 30 billion.

The strong growth in global demand for food and energy has raised the prices of agribusiness products since the beginning of 2021.

In 2022, the war in Ukraine worsened the supply and demand situation, which was already tight due to the pandemic, which, it is worth remembering, led to a reduction in operations among the producing countries, with consequent disarray in global value chains and an increase in sea freight.

The scenario of prices on a high rise in the international market has ensured brazilian agribusiness, an important global exporter of food and energy, successive records in foreign sales.

Exports

From January to June 2022, the volume exported by the national agribusiness fell 1% compared to the same period of the previous year, but dollar prices rose 28%.

Even in the face of record dollar revenues in national currency, real revenue did not perform the same, due to the inflationary process observed in Brazil during the first half of 2022.

The rise in real prices in Reais in the first half of 2022 compared to the same period of 2021 was limited to approximately 6%.

In the first six months of 2022, agribusiness participation in Brazil's trade balance was 48%, exceeding the participation obtained in the same period of 2021.

Agenda

As for the products exported by the national agribusiness from January to June of this year, those of the soybean complex continue to lead the performance of the sector.

Soybeangrain and its derivatives accounted for almost 48% of the external sales of agribusiness in the first half of 2022, followed by meat, forest products, coffee and those of the sugar-alcohol complex.

On the buyer side, the highlight was China, as expected (representing 35% of the external agribusiness revenues), followed by the European Union and the United States (with 16% and 6.5%, respectively).

Perspectives

The attention in this second half is focused on the progress of the harvest in the Northern Hemisphere.

The harvest in the United States and the evolution of Ukrainian grain shipments will play a crucial role in containing rising food prices – which, it is pointed out, has already shown some slowdown.

Thus, if the first half of 2022 was marked by energy and food inflation in the world, due to the war in Ukraine and its aftermath, for the second half, the fight against inflation, which will be due to the continuation of the rise in interest rates in the United States and Europe, has raised the fear of a recession in the world economy in the coming months,  which can help contain the rise in external commodity prices.

This is because the result of these policies may be less pressure of demand and growth in supply, removing space for intense increases in food prices, and, of course, if there are no significant losses in global supply, due to adverse weather events.

Source: Canal Rural