The good rainfall that occurred in virtually the entire country helped in the recovery of a small portion of crops sown late in the South and Mato Grosso do Sul, but did not reverse the scenario of productivity fall, already announced in previous surveys. Rio Grande do Sul remains the state hardest hit by the water deficit in November and December 2021, followed by Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul.

In the opposite scenario, most other states achieved higher yields than those obtained in the last harvest, especially Piauí, which has achieved 12.7% higher yields so far. Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goiás, are approaching the end of the harvest, surpassing more than 97% of the so-called area.

Estimates indicate average productivity of 3,000 kg/ha and a total production of 122.43 million tons, down 14.9% and 11.4%, respectively. The drop in production was not greater only due to the 4.1% increase in the so-called area, reaching 40,804.9 million hectares in this harvest.

Supply and demand

Conab makes a new adjustment in soybean production data, previously estimated at 122.77 million tons and in this report it is now 122.43 million tons. For the 2020/21 crop, there was an adjustment in the percentage of soybean oil for biodiesel production, also considering the percentage of soybean oil in the Other Fatty Materials (OMG) category, using the average between the highest and lowest statistical percentage observed.

With this, the soybean crushing of the mentioned crop, suffers a reduction of 875,000 tons compared to the last frame. For the 2021/22 harvest, there was a reduction in the estimated export of 3.16 million tons, from 80.16 million tons to 77 million tons. There was an increase in crushing of 3.57 million tons from 42.93 million tons to 46.50 million tons.

The reduction in export estimates and the increase in domestic crushing are motivated by an expectation of lower export of soybeans in grains for the second half, since, with the crushing margins very attractive, the crushing and exports of soybean oil should be high and, therefore, soybean oil exports are now estimated at 1.56 million tons.

As a result of the increase in the estimate of soybean crushing in grains and the reduction of the export estimate, the passage stocks of soybeans in grains are estimated at 2.52 million tons by the end of 2022. 

The estimated production of bran, for the 2020/21 harvest, has a cut of 418,000 tons, motivated by the reduction of crushes and for the 2021/22 harvest an increase of 2.7 million tons motivated by the expansion of the planned crushing.

The estimated soybean oil production has a cut of 196,000 tons in the 2020/21 crop, driven by the reduction of crushes and, for the 2021/22 harvest, an increase of 229,000 tons motivated by the increase in crushing.

Finally, the sale of soybean oil in the domestic market has a reduction of 195,900 tons in the 2020/21 crop and 236,000 tons in the 2021/22 crop caused by the adjustment of the estimate of the percentage of soybean oil used for biodiesel production.

Source: Agrolink