Nature-based climate solutions aim to preserve and improve carbon storage in terrestrial or aquatic ecosystems and can be a potential contributor to climate change mitigation strategy. "However, the risk is that carbon stored in ecosystems can be lost back into the atmosphere as a result of forest fires, insect outbreaks, deforestation or other human activities," says Kirsten Zickfeld, professor of climate science at Department of Science, Simon Fraser University.

The researchers used a global climate model to simulate temperature change through two scenarios ranging from weak to ambitious greenhouse gas emission reductions. In the scenario of relatively weak emission reduction, carbon emissions continue until 2100. In the ambitious scenario, carbon emissions reach zero net by 2050.

To meet the paris agreement's climate goals, the world will need to achieve zero net CO2 emissions around or before the end of the century, according to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

In both scenarios, it is assumed that carbon storage through nature-based climate solutions is temporary, as forests are vulnerable to natural and human disturbances. Therefore, nature-based climate solutions are expected to remove carbon from the atmosphere in the next 30 years and then slowly release carbon during the second half of the century.

The team found that in a scenario with carbon emissions rapidly decreasing to zero net, temporary nature-based carbon storage can decrease the peak level of warming. However, in a scenario with continuous carbon emissions, temporary nature-based carbon storage would serve only to slow the rise in temperature.

"Our study shows that nature-based carbon storage, even if temporary, can have tangible climate benefits, but only if implemented along with a rapid transition to zero fossil fuel emissions," zickfeld says.

The results were published in Communications Earth & Environment.

Zickfeld is also the lead author of the recent contribution of Working Group I of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to the Sixth Assessment Report released in the summer of 2021 and the IPCC's 2018 special report on global warming of 1.5 degrees.

The researchers also note that investing in the protection and restoration of nature offers social and environmental benefits to local and indigenous communities, as well as storing carbon to mitigate climate change.

They add that biodiversity, water and air quality are inherently valuable and that efforts to improve them can also help increase the community's resilience to climate change.