Russia has not suspended its fertilizer exports to Brazil, as some media outlets have reported in recent days. Although the conflict between the nation and Ukraine greatly affects the market, especially for logistical issues and access to raw materials, relations between Brazil and Russia are maintained, as explained by AMR Business Inteligence fertilizer consultant Alessandro Rabello. 

"We saw that the information circulated that Russia has halted exports to Brazil, this risk exists and not from Rùssia to lock to Brazil, but to the world, in fact, without a specific reason for Brazil. And the whole body of the matter that circulated speaks of a situation in Belarus (and of sanctions that are imposed on this country by the European Union and the United States), which is a case already known and that you have been reporting," rabello said. 

The consultant also reaffirms that trade relations between Brasilia and Moscow continue to strengthen, especially after the recent visit of President Jair Bolsonaro to Vladimir Putine that the major concerns, at this time, are in fact focused on the logistics issue. 

"Russia is now a strong exporter of ammonia, an important raw material for nitrogenand phosphates such as N, such as MAP, DAP, NPS, then 25% of global ammonia leaves Russia, mainly the port of Odessa (ukraine), which since the 24th, when the war began, has been with closed ammonia exports. There is already a lack of ammonia and prices are starting to go off," he says. 

The fertiliser sector was already in a very solid fundamental framework, with shortages of raw materials and sanctions imposed on Belarus known, and the war only further intensifies the picture, as recent sanctions on Russia severely limit trade transactions worldwide. 

"When we evaluate fertilizer matrix, potassium for example, there is a concentration in the hands of few companies. Canada is the world producer mair, and then Russia and Belarus together, as a small difference between the two (...) When we look at the combined Russian and Belarusian potassium, we have an overall share of almost 50%, it is a very large representative and there is no substitute product for potassium chloride", details the consultant.

The current moment, therefore, leaves the market without parameters for the formation of price references, which makes business even more difficult. "Companies' price lists will depend on how they feel about their volume of supplies ... We're going to see volatility in all commodity prices and fertilizers aren't going to stay out of it," he says. 

Faced with this "excess of bad news", as Rabello explains, provokes a race of the Brazilian producer to ensure its business and, as soon as possible, its fertilizers, but also with them seeking all possible alternatives in the face of problems that may present themselves in the coming days.

POSITIONING OF MINISTER TEREZA CRISTINA 

By Jhonatas Simião

In an interview on Tuesday night (1st) for the blog of journalist Andréia Sadi in G1, The Minister of Agriculture, Tereza Cristina, said there is no reason to panic for the impacts on the import of fertilizerfrom Russia by Brazil amid tensions between the country and Ukraine, but said it monitors the situation.

"We need to wait, it's too early yet: we need to see what this sanction from the West to Russia will look like," Tereza said. The holder of the folder also added that it seeks alternatives in case of impact on supply.

The National Fertilizer Plan has been discussed in recent years and can be an outlet in case of supply impacts. Brazil is very dependent on the import of insum. About 70% of fertilizers are imported.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas