First study on the influence of the ABC Plan on the national economy shows that pasture recovery technology generated an increase of 0.31% of GDP, which is equivalent to R$ 17 billion in the period analyzed between 2010 and 2018 (based on macroeconomic variables from 2015).The figures are part of the study conducted by researchers from the Luiz de Queiroz School of Agriculture of the University of São Paulo (Esalq/USP), based on a map notice in partnership with the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA).

The study takes into account exclusively pasture recovery technology, one of seven implemented in the ABC Plan. We considered 20 million hectares of recovered pastures, identified in satellite images of the Laboratory of Image Processing and Geoprocessing (Lapig) of the Federal University of Goiás (UFG).

Mariane Crespolini, director of Sustainable Production and Irrigation of the Map, explains that the contributions of technology are socioeconomic, since they allowed, in addition to environmental gains, increased income of rural producers, consumption of families, jobs, salaries and tax collection. High productivity in beef and dairy cattle were also observed.

"The study validated the social, environmental and financial tripod of the sustainable production actions developed by the ABC Plan. Before we had this result, the Plan showed carbon mitigation. But it's much more than that: we mitigate carbon, we generate more jobs, more taxes. We have had a very positive effect on people's economy and lives. This is the real success of ABC", highlights Mariane, who followed the study and holds a PhD in Economic Development.

Public policy that promotes the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture, the ABC Plan is still composed of six other technologies: crop-livestock-forest integration; agroforestry systems; no-tillage system; biological nitrogen fixation; planted forests; treatment of animal waste. Conducted between 2010 and 2020, the ABC mitigated about 170 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in an area of 52 million hectares. 

Now, based on the same methodology, a study will be carried out for the areas served with abc+ irrigation technology. This is the second stage of the ABC Plan, which added irrigation as technology for sustainable production in Brazilian agro. The goal is to reduce the equivalent carbon emissions by 1.1 billion tons in the agricultural sector in an area of 72.68 million hectares by 2030. The value in emissions mitigation is seven times higher than the plan set in its first step in the past decade.

Impact on agricultural policy and society

In relation specifically to the return of the ABC Program, the study showed that the social impact of pasture recovery was 56%. This is equivalent to 6.5% of real value per year, discounted inflation. 

The ABC Program is the credit line of the Safra Plan with subsidized interest rate to finance investments in technologies and production systems that contribute to promote an agricultural activity more adapted to climate change and also mitigating greenhouse gases.

"The study shows that it is worth investing in a model in which we provide a line of credit with lower interest rates than market rates, and that there is a return to the economy," said The Secretary of Agricultural Policy, Guilherme Bastos.

The study also confirms the role of public policies as drivers of ASG practices (Environmental, Social and Governance), which should receive a close eye by companies in further accelerating these results, according to Bastos' assessment. "It's a win-win situation."

In addition to simulations of economic and social impacts, the study also showed the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions. When considering carbon sequestration in soil, a process that occurs in well-managed areas of agricultural production, for beef cattle there was a reduction of 9.67% of emissions per kilo of meat produced. For dairy farming, the reduction was 5.86% per liter produced.

Another observation that the study brings is related to the use of labor in productive activities: the sustainable intensification of production requires a more qualified labor, which is considered positive. In addition, however, public policies are needed to promote the qualification of those workers who were already employed in extensive model systems, says Mariane Crespolini as an opportunity to expand training in the field.

Methodology

The study begins with the isolation of the effect of productivity gain from the evaluation of the area recovered based on satellite images. Thus, scenarios are created and the researchers cut the economy considering the productivity gain that occurred from the recovery of pastures. The premise of which it is part is: what would it be like if livestock continued with that productivity without recovering the pasture? 

Technically, the effect of gaining agricultural productivity on the country's economic matrix is isolated. So the reasoning should be as follows: if the producer produces more in the same area, he ends up using more insum, hiring a greater number of professionals, generating more and better jobs in the region, providing a better quality of life to workers. This all brings economic and social returns to the region.  

The data analysis process involves the 124 sectors of the national economy from a matrix based on the general computational equilibrium model, recognized world theory and widely used to measure the outcome of public policies.

"We apply the policy, measure the results so that we can realize the economic models. It is a matter of evaluating the policy developed, seeing its results in practice to improve", concluded Crespolini.

* with Mapa information

Source: Agrolink