Compared to just a few years ago, though, there have also been some positive—and in some cases surprising—developments that point the way toward strategies that can not only work around these existing challenges but also offer the real possibility of supporting new levels of ambition that would not have been thinkable. First, technology costs continue to decline at rates that have shifted the set of possibilities for national economies. Perhaps the most telling aggregate indicator of this was reported by the International Renewable Energy Agency, which demonstrated that new clean energy costs are competitive with and in many regions lower than comparable costs for fossil fueled energy. Second, the politics of coal retirement and cancellation are shifting rapidly, not only in the U.S. but globally. Compared to 2016, global proposed new coal power generation capacity has decreased by more than 60 percent from 1,282 GW to 502 GW, largely driven by policies in China. In addition, a group of over 80 countries, states, and other organizations have announced plans to phase out coal plants within the next 10 to 15 years as part of the Powering Past Coal Alliance.

Third, and critically, new experience since the first round of targets under the Paris shows the potential of a new and more robust, comprehensive climate strategy to generate national ambition. This strategy focuses not only on national governments but also includes efforts from subnational governments and other organizations within national jurisdictions. The spotlight has conventionally shone on national policy, with some justification, because in most countries, national governments retain prime control of some major policy actions. However, by focusing on this spotlight, essential opportunities and groundwork by non-national actors have often been overlooked. Cities, provinces, states, businesses, counties, regional networks, and others have, in many parts of the world, demonstrated significant climate ambition in many cases beyond that of their national governments. While their policy platforms are by definition narrower in geographic scope, they are at times significant—U.S. states and Canadian provinces, for example, exert significant control over their energy policies—and when aggregated across countries, can add up to a major additional contribution to support higher national ambition.

Evidence for the significant potential of this strategy comes out of the country that is perhaps the most challenged currently at the level of national leadership—the United States. While the view of American climate action can easily be conflated with the voice and actions of the president, climate politics in the U.S. are pointing in a very different direction. The midterm elections, for example, swept in new climate leadership in state legislatures. The U.S. Climate Alliance of States now counts 25 governors of both parties, representing 55 percent of the U.S. population and over 40 percent of U.S. emissions. In addition, work I conducted with colleagues as part of the America’s Pledge Initiative on Climate Change demonstrated that such actions were not only resulting in significant impacts on emissions today—driving them down to reach nearly two-thirds of the way to the U.S. Paris target, but could also deliver additional emissions reductions close to the previous U.S. national target when scaled up—results that could be significantly accelerated were the U.S. to re-engage with climate policy after the 2020 elections.

Related

Comprehensive national strategies that then layer national policies over the leadership and actions from cities, states, businesses, and other organizations can address two central challenges for raising national ambition—and are therefore central to answering the call of the Summit. First, because they leverage leadership across the economy, they have the potential to squeeze out additional actions where the national governments may not have seen it, or where they may not have had policy levers. Second, because they build on distributed political processes from the bottom up, they are more durable and have a greater chance of being implemented than strategies generated exclusively from the top down.

This key policy innovation thus provides a route toward building groundwork today that can support national ambition in the near future, in countries across the spectrum of current support. Infusing the Summit’s ambition discussion with this principle will be a core strategy toward a successful long-term policy and climate outcome.